This research brief documents some key findings about career expectations, including how much high schoolers think about their future careers, gender differences in their prospective career expectations, and how often they pursue college majors that align with those career expectations.
The question “what do you want to be when you grow up?” is a common one, and the responses shed light on what potential futures children have been exposed to, what they believe is possible, and what they believe might be a fit for them.
Although girls and women have made remarkable advances in education and the workforce, boys have become increasingly less likely to enroll in college and men are less likely to be working than in the past. At the same time, there are large gender imbalances in some professions, with a notable lack of men in health, education, and literacy (HEAL) jobs. Men represent less than a quarter of HEAL workers, a share that has declined over recent decades even as the share of women in STEM has increased.
In this research brief, we shed light on high school students’ career expectations and college pursuits.
In this brief, we ask:
To approach these questions, we use data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, a nationally representative survey of 23,000 high schoolers that follows 9th graders through postsecondary education.
Sixty-six percent of 9th grade boys and 70% of girls reported thinking “a lot” about what career they expect to have at age 30, as shown in figure 1. Only 11% of boys and 9% of girls in this cohort report either thinking little or not at all about it.
Figure 1
DATA NOTEData represented 9th graders in the United States (2009). HSLS used a stratified, two-stage random sample design. The primary sampling unit was schools selected in the first stage, and students were randomly selected from those sample schools in the second stage. The base year sample includes 25,206 study-eligible students. The study followed-up with these same students in their junior year of HS and again 3 years after the modal high school completion date. Because of attrition, the second follow-up includes 23,316 of the original student participants.
While boys and girls both claim to have thought a lot about their expected job, about a third of 9th grade boys are almost 50% more likely than girls (34% v. 23%) to say that they “don’t know” what job they want at age 30.
Figure 2
Ninth grade boys are more likely than girls to say they “don’t know” what job they expect to have at age 30. It is also, by far, the most common response that boys give. In contrast, the most popular choice for girls was some type of HEAL profession: about 2-in-5 girls expect some type of job related to education, healthcare, or social services. A full list of HEAL jobs is in the figure 3 data note.
Figure 3 also highlights that while STEM is the most popular career desire among boys, it’s not nearly to the same degree that HEAL professions are popular among girls. Boys are nearly as interested in arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media (13%), HEAL (11%), and protective services and the military (10%).
Figure 3
DATA NOTEHSLS researchers recoded student responses into the O*NET job title taxonomy. We further recoded responses into the following categories:
In figure 4, we clearly see some degree of gender imbalances in 9th grade career ambitions across the board. Over 60% of students who expect a STEM or business career are male, but only one boy for every four girls expects to go into a HEAL profession. While considered a stereotypically male career field, the desire for STEM roles among boys is not nearly as lopsided as the desire for HEAL roles among girls. Girls account for 78% of those expecting a HEAL career. By comparison, boys account for only 61% of those expecting a STEM career. We do observe that jobs in manual labor—maintenance, construction, farming, and transportation—and protective services are overwhelmingly preferred by boys, outnumbering girls 9:1 and 4:1, respectively.
Overall, high school students’ career expectations—mirroring the gender splits that characterize fields like HEAL and STEM—remain fairly gendered.
Figure 4
We compared the career expectations of 9th graders with their major choice in college (for those that went) approximately seven years later.
We consider an expectation to be “sticky” if students who expressed it in 9th grade later major in a related field. In figures 5 and 6, we provide heat maps that describe boys’ and girls’ stated 9th grade aspirations (rows), and their later choice of college major or not-in-college status (columns). The table depicts the share of students with a particular major given their stated career expectations in 9th grade. For example, 28% of boys who expected a STEM job at age 30 were pursuing a STEM degree.
Boys and girls have considerably different patterns of aspirational stickiness. From figure 5 we observe the following:
It is possible that some part of the non-enrollment story may be driven by the pursuit of work where a college degree is not necessarily needed such as entrepreneurship, military, and construction. In any event, boys in some ways are more “sticky” in their expectations.
Figure 5
For girls, the story is different: HEAL degrees dominate regardless of 9th-grade interest, remaining the top—or tied with the top—major even when their early expectations were STEM or “other.”
While boys are more likely to choose a major related to their 9th-grade job expectation in every category, the overall share of students pursuing a major related to their career expectations is fairly equal between boys and girls—42% vs 44% (see data note below). This is simply because of the much larger number of girls expecting (and pursuing) a HEAL career.
Figure 6
DATA NOTEStudent majors were coded using the NCES 2010 Classification of Instructional Programs taxonomy. We further recoded responses into the following categories:
To calculate overall stickiness rates for boys and girls, we divided the total number of students who chose a major related to their 9th grade career expectation by the total number of students with that aspiration that were enrolled in college.
Thirty-four percent of boys and 23% of girls don’t have a career expectation in 9th grade, so where do they end up? This is the most common choice for boys, so outcomes for these students really matter.
Figure 7
First, we note that about half of these students—55% of boys and 47% of girls—do not go to college at all. For those that do, their majors tend to be more gender-typical. That is, among those who “don’t know” what career they’ll have at age 30, boys gravitate toward male-dominated professions and girls gravitate toward female-dominated professions. A third of college enrolled males without a career expectation major in STEM, the highest percentage of any major choice. 38% of college enrolled females without a career expectation choose a HEAL major, also the highest percentage of any major choice.
Of course, we would expect that a student’s stated career ambitions would have at least some alignment with their ultimate choice of college major. But it seems especially important for boys whose major choices track more closely with their stated career expectations in adolescence, while girls seem to gravitate toward majors that would allow entry into HEAL professions, regardless of their stated expectations.
One implication of this is that early exposure may matter: boys who express interest in HEAL careers during adolescence often follow that desire in college. This suggests an opportunity to better understand what sparked that interest, and how more boys might be encouraged to see these careers as a good fit.
Even when 9th graders say “I don’t know” about their future career, the majors they eventually pick are not random: boys are more likely to land in STEM and girls in HEAL. While some of this may be a function of innate interest or sense-of-fit, social cues like who they identify with and what they see others doing likely play an important role. Highlighting HEAL careers as arenas for saving lives or high-tech problem-solving or connecting them with male mentors in some of these fields could open more young men’s eyes to these paths.
While this research brief has documented some key findings about career expectations and pursuits, a follow-up piece will dig deeper into the drivers of those patterns—examining which agents and experiences shape adolescents’ career goals (and whether those influences differ for boys versus girls), how expectations vary by race, family structure, and parents’ schooling, and how teens adjust their ambitions as they learn what different careers actually demand.
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